The general elections of May 6 did not yield a stable majority in the Vouli, the Greek Parliament, and after more than a week of negotiations President Karolos Papoulias had no recourse but the decree for a new vote.

This political crisis seemed to favor the Coalition of the Radical Left (Syriza) opposite to the austerity measures advocated by the EU and the IMF and supported by a growing fringe of the population. 

But since the new elections, the conservative New Democracy (ND) replicate the advantage over their rivals Syriza.

A survey, conducted between March 15 and May 17, credits the Conservatives of 26.1% of the vote while the Left Coalition would get 23.7% of the vote.

With such a result, the left would have 123 of the 300 parliamentary seats, a premium of 50 representatives being granted automatically to the leading party.

ND could then count on the extra PASOK (Socialist), in sharp loss of hearing for several weeks, which would get 41 seats. A union of these two formations that support the European austerity plan would produce a majority in Parliament.

Last week, an opinion poll gave the advantage to Syriza, took second on May 6, which raised fears of bankruptcy on Public Accounts, and an exit scenario of euro area was considered likely by the European partners.

Syriza seems to pay his unwillingness to serve in a unity government in negotiations with Papoulias.

This change in voting intentions are not satisfied yet the fears of Europe.

Sign of this concern, the British company De La Rue, which prints banknotes for over 150 national currencies, has scheduled an emergency plan to print drachmas in the case where the output of the euro area would inevitable. 

The need to provide in a short time a considerable amount of paper currency could force the Greek authorities to turn to private companies to complete the production of printing national.

EUROPE BOARD OF MULTIPLE SCENARIOS

For now, the European Central Bank (ECB) said strong support to the maintenance of Greece in the eurozone.

"Our preference is clearly in favor of a continuation of Greece into the euro," said Jose Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo, who must leave the Executive Board of the ECB at the end of May , adding that the European bank does not "describe in detail" the scenario of an output of Greece. 

The EU trade commissioner, Karel de Gucht, however, announced in an interview published Friday that the European Commission and the ECB worked on various scenarios. This is the first statement by a senior European official confirming the existence of such plans.

"There is one and a half, the risk of domino effect could have existed," said De Gucht Belgian Flemish daily De Standaard. "But today there are, both within the European Central Bank and European Commission services working in emergency scenarios where Greece can not do it. "

"An output of Greece does not mean the end of the euro, as some claim," he added.

Karel De Gucht says he believes that Greece will remain in the euro but emphasizes that the decisive question before the elections of June 17 is whether the ECB will ask what conditions to guarantee the liquidity of banks.

This position was confirmed by a spokesman for the German Ministry of Finance stated that Berlin was preparing for all eventualities.

"For two years we have done everything possible to keep Greece in the euro area (…) The German government obviously has the responsibility to its citizens to be ready for any eventuality, "she said

….. Wednesday …. Christine Lagarde, Executive Director of the IMF acknowledged that the international institution was preparing "technically" at an output of Greece

.

Speaking after its annual review of the Italian economy, the head of the IMF European Department, Reza Moghadam, has shown strong support for the president of Italy Mario Monti. This has put pressure on European leaders to ensure that measures to promote growth in addition to the austerity plans response to the crisis.

"The policies implemented by the government have created a stability that is truly remarkable compared to the situation we had at the end of last year," said Reza Moghadam during a press conference.

The IMF confirmed its estimate of 1.9% decline in gross domestic product (GDP) Italian for 2012, after falling 0.8% in the first quarter.

The fund does not think that Rome should take further fiscal adjustment measures beyond what the country has already planned, although the government has raised its forecast for de government deficit from 2013 to 0.5% of GDP, against 0.1% previously. 

"Fiscal policy for this year and next year is a policy that the IMF fully supports," he said.

"Our recommendation is to proceed with plans to recapitalize banks, precisely to ensure that banks have sufficient capital to support credit activity in Italy," he added.

Considering the situation in Greece "concern" after the results of Sunday's parliamentary elections, Jean-Paul Chifflet, the Director General of the French bank, has however, that the assumption of output in the euro area was not the scenario chosen by the majority group. 

"We are in all cases prepared for all eventualities even if we think that it should not happen," said Jean-Paul Chifflet at a conference call about the future of Greece.

"We do not envisage this scenario so as the majority of risk occurrence," he added.

At the Paris Bourse, the action Credit Agricole SA, which had opened on a drop of over 3%, 2.26% gave up to 10:10, to 3.417 euros in a market still nervous because of the political stalemate in Greece and the revelation of a trading loss by the U.S. bank JPMorgan. 

Since the beginning of the year, the title, which hit Wednesday during its lowest (3.344 euros) since its IPO in late 2001, falling more than 21%, significantly underperforming the European banking index down only 0.35% since January 1.

"Given the current Greek, the group's exposure to Emporiki remains a major factor of concern," said Alex Koagne, an analyst at Natixis.

"However the performance of core business lines is strong in the quarter. Moreover, the deleveraging plan ahead properly, which is good news, "he says

. NEW CHARGES ON GREECE … The listed vehicle

….. group Credit Agricole says first quarter spending in a new charge of 940 million euros for Greece, which EUR 567 million related to its Greek subsidiary Emporiki mainly because of new provisions

. Its net profit reached 252 million of the coup euros for the first three months of the year. According to the Thomson Reuters consensus I / B / E / S, analysts on average expected a net profit of 571 million euros.

Its revenues for the period rose 2.3% while its provision for credit risk have increased more than two.

The bank, which was accused last year its first annual loss since its IPO in late 2001, warned in mid-March that its first quarter accounts would incorporate new provisions on the Gre and it related to the perimeter of the second aid plan for the Hellenic Republic. 

Hired as other European banks in a restructuring of its operations in the BFI and reduce balance sheet size, the group also states that it reached in late April, 70% of its target to reduce its liquidity needs and 91% of its objective of reducing its risk-weighted assets.

ALL OPTIONS OPEN ON CHEUVREUX

This restructuring of the CIB, which involves the removal of 1,750 positions, also resulted in the first quarter charge of 224 million euros.

Asked about the future of its subsidiary brokerage Cheuvreux, Jean-Paul Chifflet also said that all assumptions were now open. 

Cheuvreux was excluded from the scope of end-March discussions with the Chinese broker who negotiates the purchase Citics CLSA, the brokerage subsidiary of another bank green.

For the whole group Credit Agricole, the net profit was 804 million euros in the first quarter, down 47%.

For comparison, the group BPCE (People's Bank – Savings Bank), parent company of Natixis, has made a net profit of 665 million euros.

BNP Paribas and Societe Generale have in turn reported net income of respectively 2.867 million and 732 million euros.

President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Mario Draghi agreed Wednesday that he hoped the massive loans made in recent months by the institution to European banks would benefit more quickly to the real economy.

The ECB has lent some EUR 1,000 billion over three years on terms very favorable to the banks of the euro area at two outstanding operations in December and February, hoping thereby stimulate lending and thereby the economy as a whole.

But in the economy right now "demand is therefore contained the credit application is contained," Draghi said at a hearing before MEPs. Lending operations have improved the financial position and allowed to "buy time", said Mr. Draghi, which is "not negligible", "but we can not compensate for the lack of demand," Has he added.

For the head of the ECB, the lack of credit is explained more by the crisis, which reduced demand for financing of households, by the cautious behavior of banks. The IMF, however, points to the prudence of financial institutions.

"The pressure on European banks remain high. They face the risk of public debt, weak economic growth, higher requirements when renewing their loans maturing and the need to strengthen their reserves to regain investor confidence, "say economists Fund

. The IMF also estimates that 58 major European banks may have to reduce their assets 2,600 billion by end 2013 to comply with the requirements of the European Banking Authority in terms of capital ratios. Such a perspective is not only bad for financial markets. It would also limit the ability of bank funding, particularly in countries where interest rates remain high, and decrease further loans to businesses, potentially creating a vicious cycle, explains Fabrice Cousté, CEO of CMC Markets France

.

The IMF estimates that the debt crisis of the euro area poses the most acute global economic growth and financial markets fear that after Greece, Ireland and Portugal, it is the turn of Italy and Spain – the third and fourth economies in the region – to seek international assistance.

"There are firm commitments to increase resources available to the IMF more than $ 430 billion," say in a statement the G20 countries. 

The IMF will use this enhanced firepower to help any country or region that would require, but those are the fears that the crisis in Europe have accelerated ; Lere enhancement of its resources.

Sign of ongoing concerns of financial markets respond to the crisis of European sovereign debt, the yield on Spanish bonds to ten years has exceeded 6% this week and investors are concerned that borrowing costs of Madrid reach an unsustainable level.

"The extreme risks weighing on the global economy there are still some less began to fade," said the G20 in a statement. 

"However, growth expectations for 2012 remain subdued, the deleveraging affecting the growth of consumption and investment, the volatility remains high, partly reflecting the pressures of financial markets in Europe, and downside risks persist. "

Emerging countries have obtained their G20 partners guarantees to see their growing economic role gradually recognized in the Fund, through a strengthening of their voting rights. Brazil, in particular, had asked for a commitment to do so.

The Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega said after the G20 meeting that emerging markets of BRIC – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – had unanimously agreed to provide additional funds to the IMF.

In Paris at 10:01, the CAC 40 was down 0.31% (-9.51 points) to 3,283.00 points. In Frankfurt, the Dax is almost unchanged, while in London, the FTSE gained 0.19%. The pan-European index Stoxx 50 is down 0.59%.

"The markets are experiencing a phase of consolidation after a strong rebound since the beginning of the year and Spanish bond auctions go well Thursday, investors' appetite for risk resume more beautiful, "said Hirokazu Tuihama, a strategist at Daiwa Securities.

Values, the British retailer Tesco, which has announced plans to spend one billion pounds (1.2 billion) to overhaul its operations in Britain to regain market share and reconnect with sales growth, gaining more than 1.6%. 

Accor (1.64%) stands out from other CAC 40 stocks Wednesday morning after the hotel group released a sales growth of 4.5% to 1.371 billion euros in the first quarter, slightly above market expectations (1.358 billion).

The world number two home appliances Electrolux sells more than 3% in early trade after the announcement of a decline of 16.7% of its supplies to the market North America's six major product categories.

ASML is the title back in the same proportions as the world leader in machinery engravings of semiconductors declined to disclose its prospects of orders on the occasion of the publication of its quarterly results . 

In the euro area, investors will monitor the issue of 5 billion euros of debt in two years in Germany before the auctions of two and ten years in Spain and BTAN and a new line on inflation indexed by France on Thursday.

The Swedish Central Bank held rates unchanged while preventing an increase in inflationary pressures would lead to the rise, but not until next year. Other monetary policy decisions are expected during the day in Turkey and Brazil after the publication by the International Monetary Fund of its global economic forecast in which the international organization has raised its forecast for growth while warning against the fragility of the global economic recovery and highlighting the continuing challenges of the euro area.

In China, the fall in house prices continued in March and could lead the authorities to alleviate the measures taken two years ago to reduce speculation in this market , while the slowdown in the Chinese economy continues to be a concern in the markets.

Attention statistical trapped. While the real situation of employment is being debated in the U.S., including the Fed, the Labor Department announced Friday that the unemployment rate fell 0.1 points to 8.2% in March. But this apparent good news is accompanied by a slowdown in job creation to 120,000 against 240,000 the previous month Analysts had expected at least 200,000 more jobs created last month.

Hiring was strongest in the first two months of the year, especially in January (275,000). But economists were concerned that these figures have been inflated by an unusually mild weather, making an increase in activity that would be offset by a slowdown in March.

Unemployment can evolve differently in job creation: it is determined by household surveys as they are derived from company surveys, it is sensitive to changes in the labor force (which increased less in March in January or February), and is calculated to a tenth of a percentage point, from which threshold effects.

Since summer, the trend unemployment rate is significantly to the decline, which had reached 9.1% in August yet. This trend is also clear for another measure of the labor market, unemployment and underemployment (including among other employees working part time against their will, or people who have abandoned the active search for work) , which fell to 14.5% in March against 14.9% in February. This is the lowest rate since January 2009. The number of unemployed also declined: 12.67 million in March, against 12.81 million in February.

By business segment, the slowdown in job creation is significant in the private sector (121,000 in March after 233,000 in February). In the public employment was flat in March while on a decline the previous month. Hiring in the manufacturing sector were virtually unchanged (31 000), while those in the service sector fell (90,000 against 204,000 in February).

The government increased job losses in temporary employment (7500), generally considered a leading indicator of economic activity. But he welcomed the increase of 3.6 million since February 2010 the number of jobs in the U.S. economy.

Renault shares (-1.83%) and PSA Peugeot Citroen (-2.61%) have the largest declines in the CAC 40 index which is 0.43% while the Stoxx sector index of 'European automotive advance of 0.34% to 9:45.

Last month, he registered 197,033 new passenger cars in the Hexagon. After adjustment for working days, the decline appears to 20.0% in March 2012 that were 22 days as against 23 in March 2011, announced Monday the Committee of French Automobile Manufacturers (CCFA).

In January and February this year, the market had already experienced declines of around 20% in raw data, the backlash level of registrations recorded on the pe same period of 2011 through to last orders "cash for clunkers" that could be delivered until March 31 of last year.

"This downturn is spectacular but it was expected," said Flavien Neuvy, Director of the Cetelem automobile. "We still think that most of the decline in yeara was performed in the first quarter and that the scenario of two million vehicles over the year remains relevant in light of new orders and new models coming. "

CCFA has also maintained its estimate of a decline of about 10% of the French automotive market in 2012.

For PSA Peugeot Citroen, which has teamed up in February at General Motors, registrations in France plummeted 33.2% last month while the Renault-including the diamond brand and low cost Dacia brand registrations stand-fall of 29.8%. 

Throughout the first quarter, the French automotive market will be contracted by 21.7% unadjusted and 22.9% when adjusted for working days.

Registrations of PSA for the period fell by 30.3% and Renault's 30.2%, in gross terms in both cases. In contrast, those of the Volkswagen group declined only 2.3%.

The country had 18,000 job seekers less than in February in seasonally adjusted data (CVS), to 2,841,000, while economists polled by Reuters had pre saw a decline of only 10,000.

In raw data, the number of unemployed fell by 82,000 to 3,028,000 and the rate of unemployment has fallen from 7.4% to 7.2%.

The Nikkei lost 55.50 points to 10,086.49 points, away from its highest of eight and a half months reached Monday to 10,172.64 points. The Topix broader, yielded 9.57 points (1.1%) to 858.78 points.

The export values ​​have suffered from profit taking. Toyota was down 1.54% but still up nearly 38% since the beginning of the year. Nissan has lost 2.92% and Sony dropped 4.47%.