The general elections of May 6 did not yield a stable majority in the Vouli, the Greek Parliament, and after more than a week of negotiations President Karolos Papoulias had no recourse but the decree for a new vote.

This political crisis seemed to favor the Coalition of the Radical Left (Syriza) opposite to the austerity measures advocated by the EU and the IMF and supported by a growing fringe of the population. 

But since the new elections, the conservative New Democracy (ND) replicate the advantage over their rivals Syriza.

A survey, conducted between March 15 and May 17, credits the Conservatives of 26.1% of the vote while the Left Coalition would get 23.7% of the vote.

With such a result, the left would have 123 of the 300 parliamentary seats, a premium of 50 representatives being granted automatically to the leading party.

ND could then count on the extra PASOK (Socialist), in sharp loss of hearing for several weeks, which would get 41 seats. A union of these two formations that support the European austerity plan would produce a majority in Parliament.

Last week, an opinion poll gave the advantage to Syriza, took second on May 6, which raised fears of bankruptcy on Public Accounts, and an exit scenario of euro area was considered likely by the European partners.

Syriza seems to pay his unwillingness to serve in a unity government in negotiations with Papoulias.

This change in voting intentions are not satisfied yet the fears of Europe.

Sign of this concern, the British company De La Rue, which prints banknotes for over 150 national currencies, has scheduled an emergency plan to print drachmas in the case where the output of the euro area would inevitable. 

The need to provide in a short time a considerable amount of paper currency could force the Greek authorities to turn to private companies to complete the production of printing national.

EUROPE BOARD OF MULTIPLE SCENARIOS

For now, the European Central Bank (ECB) said strong support to the maintenance of Greece in the eurozone.

"Our preference is clearly in favor of a continuation of Greece into the euro," said Jose Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo, who must leave the Executive Board of the ECB at the end of May , adding that the European bank does not "describe in detail" the scenario of an output of Greece. 

The EU trade commissioner, Karel de Gucht, however, announced in an interview published Friday that the European Commission and the ECB worked on various scenarios. This is the first statement by a senior European official confirming the existence of such plans.

"There is one and a half, the risk of domino effect could have existed," said De Gucht Belgian Flemish daily De Standaard. "But today there are, both within the European Central Bank and European Commission services working in emergency scenarios where Greece can not do it. "

"An output of Greece does not mean the end of the euro, as some claim," he added.

Karel De Gucht says he believes that Greece will remain in the euro but emphasizes that the decisive question before the elections of June 17 is whether the ECB will ask what conditions to guarantee the liquidity of banks.

This position was confirmed by a spokesman for the German Ministry of Finance stated that Berlin was preparing for all eventualities.

"For two years we have done everything possible to keep Greece in the euro area (…) The German government obviously has the responsibility to its citizens to be ready for any eventuality, "she said

….. Wednesday …. Christine Lagarde, Executive Director of the IMF acknowledged that the international institution was preparing "technically" at an output of Greece

.

Considering the situation in Greece "concern" after the results of Sunday's parliamentary elections, Jean-Paul Chifflet, the Director General of the French bank, has however, that the assumption of output in the euro area was not the scenario chosen by the majority group. 

"We are in all cases prepared for all eventualities even if we think that it should not happen," said Jean-Paul Chifflet at a conference call about the future of Greece.

"We do not envisage this scenario so as the majority of risk occurrence," he added.

At the Paris Bourse, the action Credit Agricole SA, which had opened on a drop of over 3%, 2.26% gave up to 10:10, to 3.417 euros in a market still nervous because of the political stalemate in Greece and the revelation of a trading loss by the U.S. bank JPMorgan. 

Since the beginning of the year, the title, which hit Wednesday during its lowest (3.344 euros) since its IPO in late 2001, falling more than 21%, significantly underperforming the European banking index down only 0.35% since January 1.

"Given the current Greek, the group's exposure to Emporiki remains a major factor of concern," said Alex Koagne, an analyst at Natixis.

"However the performance of core business lines is strong in the quarter. Moreover, the deleveraging plan ahead properly, which is good news, "he says

. NEW CHARGES ON GREECE … The listed vehicle

….. group Credit Agricole says first quarter spending in a new charge of 940 million euros for Greece, which EUR 567 million related to its Greek subsidiary Emporiki mainly because of new provisions

. Its net profit reached 252 million of the coup euros for the first three months of the year. According to the Thomson Reuters consensus I / B / E / S, analysts on average expected a net profit of 571 million euros.

Its revenues for the period rose 2.3% while its provision for credit risk have increased more than two.

The bank, which was accused last year its first annual loss since its IPO in late 2001, warned in mid-March that its first quarter accounts would incorporate new provisions on the Gre and it related to the perimeter of the second aid plan for the Hellenic Republic. 

Hired as other European banks in a restructuring of its operations in the BFI and reduce balance sheet size, the group also states that it reached in late April, 70% of its target to reduce its liquidity needs and 91% of its objective of reducing its risk-weighted assets.

ALL OPTIONS OPEN ON CHEUVREUX

This restructuring of the CIB, which involves the removal of 1,750 positions, also resulted in the first quarter charge of 224 million euros.

Asked about the future of its subsidiary brokerage Cheuvreux, Jean-Paul Chifflet also said that all assumptions were now open. 

Cheuvreux was excluded from the scope of end-March discussions with the Chinese broker who negotiates the purchase Citics CLSA, the brokerage subsidiary of another bank green.

For the whole group Credit Agricole, the net profit was 804 million euros in the first quarter, down 47%.

For comparison, the group BPCE (People's Bank – Savings Bank), parent company of Natixis, has made a net profit of 665 million euros.

BNP Paribas and Societe Generale have in turn reported net income of respectively 2.867 million and 732 million euros.

Sales of cement, concrete and asphalt decreased by double digit percentages in Europe and the net profit after minority interests stood at 10 million Swiss francs (8.32 million euros), far from the 41.2 million expected by analysts polled by Reuters.

Revenues increased 2.2% to 4.76 billion Swiss francs, compared with 4.718 billion consensus giving.

"The harsh winter has resulted in numerous decisions of sites in Western and Eastern Europe in February," said the second world cement in a statement. 

Cement producers, firms in a particularly energy intensive, face higher costs of fuel and electricity.

Holcim said it could offset the rising costs by raising prices, but Africa and the Middle East. As Lafarge, he observed that the costs of energy and transport seemed to stabilize.

European competitors Holcim, Lafarge and whose German HeidelbergCement, have warned that they would fall under their prices to offset rising energy costs. Holcim said it reverberate cost increases caused by inflation.

The Swiss group, which generates more than half of its turnover in emerging markets, expects increased demand for building materials in Asia, Latin America, Russia and Azerbaijan this year. It also provides an increase in demand in North America.

AstraZeneca offers Ardea $ 32 per share, representing a premium of 54% over the closing price Friday of society, and values ​​acquired at a billion dollars after deduction of cash held by Ardea.

Both groups said they expect the transaction to close in the second or third quarter, adding that shareholders representing approximately 30% of Ardea had agreed to vote for the operation. 

The action Astrazeneca yielded 0.87% at the London Stock Exchange at 7:35 GMT, but doing better than the market (-1.16%).

The group is facing generic competition on several of its key drugs, including anti-psychotic Seroquel, and just to renew its range. Earlier this month, he concluded an agreement on joint development and commercialization of five treatments of the portfolio of the U.S. biotech Amgen.

The biotechnology sector is currently characterized by a wave of mergers and acquisitions and consolidation attempts.

GlaxoSmithKline announced last week it had offered to buy Human Genome Sciences for approximately $ 2.6 billion (2 billion), an offer rejected by American society. Roche has attempted unsuccessfully to acquire Illumina to $ 6.8 billion.

The IMF estimates that the debt crisis of the euro area poses the most acute global economic growth and financial markets fear that after Greece, Ireland and Portugal, it is the turn of Italy and Spain – the third and fourth economies in the region – to seek international assistance.

"There are firm commitments to increase resources available to the IMF more than $ 430 billion," say in a statement the G20 countries. 

The IMF will use this enhanced firepower to help any country or region that would require, but those are the fears that the crisis in Europe have accelerated ; Lere enhancement of its resources.

Sign of ongoing concerns of financial markets respond to the crisis of European sovereign debt, the yield on Spanish bonds to ten years has exceeded 6% this week and investors are concerned that borrowing costs of Madrid reach an unsustainable level.

"The extreme risks weighing on the global economy there are still some less began to fade," said the G20 in a statement. 

"However, growth expectations for 2012 remain subdued, the deleveraging affecting the growth of consumption and investment, the volatility remains high, partly reflecting the pressures of financial markets in Europe, and downside risks persist. "

Emerging countries have obtained their G20 partners guarantees to see their growing economic role gradually recognized in the Fund, through a strengthening of their voting rights. Brazil, in particular, had asked for a commitment to do so.

The Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega said after the G20 meeting that emerging markets of BRIC – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – had unanimously agreed to provide additional funds to the IMF.

Previous Previous PauseSuivant 1. United States: $ 48 billion investment Next 2/10

Previous Previous PauseSuivant 2. China: $ 45.5 billion investment next photo 3/10

Previous Previous PauseSuivant 3. Germany: $ 30.6 billion investment next photo 4/10

Previous Previous PauseSuivant 4. Italy: 28 billion dollars of investments Next Photo 5/10

Previous Previous PauseSuivant 5. France: $ 5 billion investment Next Photo 6/10

Previous Previous PauseSuivant 6. India: 10.2 billion euros in investments Next Photo 7/10

Previous Previous PauseSuivant 7. UK: $ 9.4 billion investment Next Photo 8/10

Previous Previous PauseSuivant 8. Japan: $ 8.6 billion investment Next 9/10

Previous Previous PauseSuivant 9. Spain: $ 8.6 billion investment Next Photo 10/10

Previous Previous PauseSuivant 10. Brazil: $ 8 billion investment Next

Attention statistical trapped. While the real situation of employment is being debated in the U.S., including the Fed, the Labor Department announced Friday that the unemployment rate fell 0.1 points to 8.2% in March. But this apparent good news is accompanied by a slowdown in job creation to 120,000 against 240,000 the previous month Analysts had expected at least 200,000 more jobs created last month.

Hiring was strongest in the first two months of the year, especially in January (275,000). But economists were concerned that these figures have been inflated by an unusually mild weather, making an increase in activity that would be offset by a slowdown in March.

Unemployment can evolve differently in job creation: it is determined by household surveys as they are derived from company surveys, it is sensitive to changes in the labor force (which increased less in March in January or February), and is calculated to a tenth of a percentage point, from which threshold effects.

Since summer, the trend unemployment rate is significantly to the decline, which had reached 9.1% in August yet. This trend is also clear for another measure of the labor market, unemployment and underemployment (including among other employees working part time against their will, or people who have abandoned the active search for work) , which fell to 14.5% in March against 14.9% in February. This is the lowest rate since January 2009. The number of unemployed also declined: 12.67 million in March, against 12.81 million in February.

By business segment, the slowdown in job creation is significant in the private sector (121,000 in March after 233,000 in February). In the public employment was flat in March while on a decline the previous month. Hiring in the manufacturing sector were virtually unchanged (31 000), while those in the service sector fell (90,000 against 204,000 in February).

The government increased job losses in temporary employment (7500), generally considered a leading indicator of economic activity. But he welcomed the increase of 3.6 million since February 2010 the number of jobs in the U.S. economy.

The credit market has recorded one of its best quarters in issue volume in number of transmitters and in reducing risk premiums (spreads), related professionals. 

"Issuers have succeeded without difficulty in raising funds to historically low levels and syndication desks (banks) had a stellar quarter," writes in a note Suki Mann , head of credit strategy at Societe Generale.

Gaëlle Malléjac, responsible for managing rate at Groupama Asset Management, points out that if one judges by the evolution of the Barclays corporate EuroAgregate, March 26 corporate credit engrangeait performance 4.63% higher than German debt.

"The average spread of the universe credit stood at 215 basis points (over German debt) at March 26, against 322 bps at end-December 2011," adds she said. 

"Concomitant resistance of German Bunds, risk-free assets, is a great enigma. The German rate (1.8% for 10 years) is disconnected from the fundamental view of the im improvement of economic situation, "said the manager.

She explains that in fact "excess liquiditésa benefited all asset classes," even the most expensive as Bunds.

BANKS EMIT NEW

The primary market for credit has regained health insolent.

"There was this quarter a record number of shows. At each show demand was strong from the beginning of this year the premium has significantly reduced or disappeared, "says she …… According to data

… established by the team of Suki Mann, the third quarter ranks among the most active primary market with 53.3 billion euros issued by non-financial corporations classified as investment (Investment Grade, IG) against 27.6 billion in the first quarter of 2011 …. In

….. speculative grade (high yield, HY), the threshold of EUR 10 billion was reached, a third of the amount total issued in 2011, and ranks fourth quarter in terms of amount issued on the euro market. 

Abruptly closed last summer with the worsening debt crisis in the eurozone, the segment of senior bank debt unsecured woke up with a bang 55 billion Euros against 12 billion for the last six months of 2011.

This rise is largely up to the credit of the last acts of unconventional European Central Bank, which was conducted in December and February 2 refinancing operations and three years of euro area banks.

The cumulative amount lent to banks at a rate of 1% has exceeded 1,000 billion and has raised a major concern emerged in 2011: the inability of banks to use market ;. 

ECB DETERMINED TO SUPPORT BANKS

"The ECB has demonstrated its determination to do everything to support the banking system of the euro area. There is more risk of refinancing of banks by 2014-2015, "said Gaëlle Malléjac

." The two LTRO averted a 'credit crunch' and to banks to buy debt device, "said Nicolas Forest, head of rates strategy at Dexia Asset Management …..

…. "With LTRO, banks have changed their behavior in January," said Gaëlle Malléjac, adding that vendors of debt Italian or Spanish sovereign, they increased rates to buyers

. 10 years Spanish and Italian have declined to 4.86% and 4.81% in February, against 6.73% and 7.3% in November at the height of the crisis in the euro area. The Spanish rate rose to 5.43%, attesting to the difficulties of the Madrid government to meet its objectives of reducing public deficits.

The professionals interviewed all stress that if the time for the LTRO has averted the risk of a credit crunch and that governments have set short-term problem of Greece and its private creditors, the underlying problems remain.

"Governance problems and structural imbalances in the euro area whose solution will take time for caution for the future," notes Nicolas Forest. However, he believes that governments seem to have learned from the bear market in 2011.

Gaëlle Malléjac and Suki Mann also express caution. But they want to believe that the new fiscal pact in the process of ratification and the expected agreement on an increase sufficient means of financial solidarity mechanism at meetings of finance ministers of the EU this week- Weekend in Copenhagen should allow a continuation of the rally-but at a more modest pace, especially for spread tightening.

The fight continues. Metalworkers block since 6:30 this Tuesday access to administrative buildings of the plant ArcelorMittal Florange (Moselle). Thirty workers wearing jumpers of the CFDT, CGT and FO have taken a position before the checkpoint leading to the "big offices" staffed usually several hundred frames.

In the pale light of dawn, the steelworkers have improvised at the gates with a pile of straw bales and wooden pallets. Some managers and administrators have been forced to turn back by the workers protest, fearing an imminent closure of the steelworks. Most of the inside workers hired to 8:00.

"This is once again disrupt production at the site" which is partly controlled from the "big office," said a trade unionist. The blocking is expected to continue throughout the day, he said. This is the second blocking access to the administrative buildings of the factory in less than two weeks.

February 28, fifty steelworkers were blocked for a dozen hours access to "big offices". This blockage was "unacceptable" by the management group's Atlantic-Lorraine. "ArcelorMittal strongly condemns the blocking (…) by a small group of trade unionists (who) and prohibit access to their workplace to the other employees of the company," had found direction in a statement.

Monday, the workers decided to continue meeting in their movement. The Inter announced it would conduct new blockages Tuesday, she would visit all workshops and site Wednesday that it "would rise" in Paris Thursday. A "great national day" demonstration will also be held March 22 in Florange by the CGT on the theme "The industry and the steel industry in France," said the union plans to bring in Lorraine "thousands of French and Belgian steelworkers. "

March 8, direction, accompanied by thirty guards, had taken possession of "large office", February 20 invested by metallurgists to cries of "Mittal, we want to work". Movement by engaging in late February, a CFDT Inter-CGT-FO (GSC / CFE has withdrawn since) had promised to make Florange "the nightmare of government" if the two blast furnaces of the steelworks, dormant for several months, were not given a prompt start. ArcelorMittal ensures it is only a standby temporary, made necessary by an insufficient global demand for steel.

The chief executive of PSA Peugeot Citroen, Philippe Varin, said Wednesday that his group would support an EU action to reduce surplus production capacity, estimated at at least 20% by many analysts and industry executives.

In his view, European leaders have every incentive to emulate the U.S. experience in recent years.

"Policies should support the industry when it needs to be restructured," he said. "If you look at what happened in the U.S. during the crisis, there was very strong support from the U.S. government."

ACEA, the Association of European Automobile Manufacturers, discussed at the Geneva show ways to increase its lobbying in favor of such action.

"We can not continue forever to treat problems of the automobile at the national level," said its secretary general, Ivan Hodac, in a interview with Reuters. "We need a solution across the EU. But it is not easy. "

Such a strategy, it is modeled on the aviation consortium EADS or that it is inspired by the steel restructuring, would not fail to encounter opposition from some national governments anxious to preserve industrial employment in their territory …… The problem

… however risks worsen following the free trade agreement with South Korea came into force last July, which boosts the sales of South Korean manufacturers

. They have exported 438,767 vehicles to the EU in 2011 while he No 'have imported only 78,762, according to official statistics. Enough to feed the concerns of ACEA in view of similar agreements between the EU and India, Japan and Mercosur.

"Slippery slope"

"If we continue to open our borders without being able to access markets in other countries, we are on a slippery slope," said Ivan Hodac.

ACEA has not yet drafted proposals for a plan for the sector, he said, but argued insistently concerned with European Commissioners s in recent days.

The President of ACEA, Sergio Marchionne, CEO of Fiat, should discuss the future free trade agreements on March 20 during a meeting with EU Trade Commissioner, officials said in Geneva. 

"Marchionne has made the comparison with the steel sector. What would be useful is a relaxation in the EU-wide dismissal procedures, thereby reducing their cost "said one analyst who declined to be identified.

"This is a problem that falls within the EU because the EU introduces a lot of limits on CO2 that increase costs and because the EU is negotiating trade agreements with Asian countries. This is the EU to determine which plants should be closed and then provide the funding. "

L announcement last week of the alliance between General Motors and PSA has of course fueled the debate and the concerns of employees, who fear mass retrenchments.

"I do not see why people would agree to see better close their plant because it is Europe that the request, especially as manufacturers and the Union have a responsibility as they played on the disparities between labor costs in Western Europe, South and East, "said ; Reuters Lelasseux Xavier, CFDT representative at PSA. 

EUROPE TO THE RESCUE

"Manufacturers have used EU subsidies to create overcapacity, and now they would call Europe to the rescue for it helps to cut jobs? It would be better to fight to make fairer competition with Asian countries. "

A restructuring orchestrated by the EU would bypass the risk that restructuring aid considered as state aid, the analyst adds.

However, all ACEA members are not convinced by such a strategy.

"I claim absolutely no public support", told Bernhard Mattes, head of the German subsidiary of Ford. "Corporate restructuring should be carried out by companies."

For his part, Carlos Ghosn, the CEO of Renault and Nissan, has predicted that the first restructuring measures could pave the way for a series of plant closures.

All European manufacturers are suffering from problems of overcapacity, he said. "But when someone in Europe could be a major restructuring, it will require all automakers to do likewise."