The general elections of May 6 did not yield a stable majority in the Vouli, the Greek Parliament, and after more than a week of negotiations President Karolos Papoulias had no recourse but the decree for a new vote.

This political crisis seemed to favor the Coalition of the Radical Left (Syriza) opposite to the austerity measures advocated by the EU and the IMF and supported by a growing fringe of the population. 

But since the new elections, the conservative New Democracy (ND) replicate the advantage over their rivals Syriza.

A survey, conducted between March 15 and May 17, credits the Conservatives of 26.1% of the vote while the Left Coalition would get 23.7% of the vote.

With such a result, the left would have 123 of the 300 parliamentary seats, a premium of 50 representatives being granted automatically to the leading party.

ND could then count on the extra PASOK (Socialist), in sharp loss of hearing for several weeks, which would get 41 seats. A union of these two formations that support the European austerity plan would produce a majority in Parliament.

Last week, an opinion poll gave the advantage to Syriza, took second on May 6, which raised fears of bankruptcy on Public Accounts, and an exit scenario of euro area was considered likely by the European partners.

Syriza seems to pay his unwillingness to serve in a unity government in negotiations with Papoulias.

This change in voting intentions are not satisfied yet the fears of Europe.

Sign of this concern, the British company De La Rue, which prints banknotes for over 150 national currencies, has scheduled an emergency plan to print drachmas in the case where the output of the euro area would inevitable. 

The need to provide in a short time a considerable amount of paper currency could force the Greek authorities to turn to private companies to complete the production of printing national.

EUROPE BOARD OF MULTIPLE SCENARIOS

For now, the European Central Bank (ECB) said strong support to the maintenance of Greece in the eurozone.

"Our preference is clearly in favor of a continuation of Greece into the euro," said Jose Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo, who must leave the Executive Board of the ECB at the end of May , adding that the European bank does not "describe in detail" the scenario of an output of Greece. 

The EU trade commissioner, Karel de Gucht, however, announced in an interview published Friday that the European Commission and the ECB worked on various scenarios. This is the first statement by a senior European official confirming the existence of such plans.

"There is one and a half, the risk of domino effect could have existed," said De Gucht Belgian Flemish daily De Standaard. "But today there are, both within the European Central Bank and European Commission services working in emergency scenarios where Greece can not do it. "

"An output of Greece does not mean the end of the euro, as some claim," he added.

Karel De Gucht says he believes that Greece will remain in the euro but emphasizes that the decisive question before the elections of June 17 is whether the ECB will ask what conditions to guarantee the liquidity of banks.

This position was confirmed by a spokesman for the German Ministry of Finance stated that Berlin was preparing for all eventualities.

"For two years we have done everything possible to keep Greece in the euro area (…) The German government obviously has the responsibility to its citizens to be ready for any eventuality, "she said

….. Wednesday …. Christine Lagarde, Executive Director of the IMF acknowledged that the international institution was preparing "technically" at an output of Greece

.

This natural disaster had disrupted for months the production chain, in the automotive sector and elsewhere.

Data released Tuesday by the Japan Automobile Dealers, however, show that sales of April 2012, which reached 208,977 units, still 5.9% lower than those of April 2010.

Toyota sales including the Lexus brand, rose 185%, while Nissan was 51.6% and 61.5% of Honda.

These funds are meant to give the IMF the means to combat the crisis of sovereign debt in the euro area.

The G20 finance ministers meet in Washington next week and will increase the Fund's resources will be central to their discussions.

"I would say it will be somewhere between 400 and 500 billion and that much will depend on commitments of the major world economies and European economies outside the euro area," said an official of the G20. 

Executive Director of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, said Thursday that an agreement could take time, suggesting that the meeting next week may not result in an agreement dice finitif.

She also said it was possible that the IMF has required fewer resources than he thought a few months ago, the economic and financial risks are being mitigated, as well as its financing needs.

The long-term operations (LTRO) of the European Central Bank refinancing two to three years made in December and late February, by watering thoroughly with liquidity sys my bank, have also helped reduce the need of the Fund, in the opinion of officials. 

The IMF estimated in January that it would take $ 500 billion more for loans and an extension 100 billion in reserves for protection of risks arising from the debt crisis of the euro area .

"UNREALISTIC"

"It was always clear that this envelope 500 to $ 600 billion (…) was too unrealistic," said another official of the G20. "We will be happy if we get other countries as much as what the Europeans are willing to contribute."

Countries in the euro area have committed to provide 150 billion euros and other countries of the European Union 50 billion.

The first official said that China and Japan could together provide $ 100 billion, or slightly more. "It seems that Japan and China are relatively happy with what Europe has done," said a third official.

"But among developing economies, we still feel that the rich countries like Germany should play a greater role in solving the problems of the region, it may be that there is no agreement until the last moment, "added the third charge.

For now, the U.S. and Canada are the only countries that do not contribute to an increase of IMF resources.

Previous Previous PauseSuivant 1. United States: $ 48 billion investment Next 2/10

Previous Previous PauseSuivant 2. China: $ 45.5 billion investment next photo 3/10

Previous Previous PauseSuivant 3. Germany: $ 30.6 billion investment next photo 4/10

Previous Previous PauseSuivant 4. Italy: 28 billion dollars of investments Next Photo 5/10

Previous Previous PauseSuivant 5. France: $ 5 billion investment Next Photo 6/10

Previous Previous PauseSuivant 6. India: 10.2 billion euros in investments Next Photo 7/10

Previous Previous PauseSuivant 7. UK: $ 9.4 billion investment Next Photo 8/10

Previous Previous PauseSuivant 8. Japan: $ 8.6 billion investment Next 9/10

Previous Previous PauseSuivant 9. Spain: $ 8.6 billion investment Next Photo 10/10

Previous Previous PauseSuivant 10. Brazil: $ 8 billion investment Next

Asked if the Commission felt that Madrid was always able to avoid stressing the currency bloc to preserve its banking sector, Olivier Bailly simply replied "yes".

He also said the Commission would be able to have an overview of the efforts of Spain to consolidate its finances once the Spanish Government has delivered a comprehensive overview of its plans, including regional governments. 

Lack of information, particularly on the provisions which reach implement local Spanish, "the Commission is not able to make any recommendation at Madrid" he added.

In anticipation of upcoming elections, the Institute of Business and Expansion are now Bayrou, president of the Democratic Movement and candidate for president, Xavier Huillard, president of the Business Institute and CEO of Vinci, and the economist Jean-Marc Daniel. They discuss the theme: "Produce in France: what works to restore prosperity?"

The debate is moderated by Franck Dedieu, a journalist at L'Expansion. It is broadcast live on Dailymotion. You can also comment on twitter and ask questions via the # debateco.

The fight continues. Metalworkers block since 6:30 this Tuesday access to administrative buildings of the plant ArcelorMittal Florange (Moselle). Thirty workers wearing jumpers of the CFDT, CGT and FO have taken a position before the checkpoint leading to the "big offices" staffed usually several hundred frames.

In the pale light of dawn, the steelworkers have improvised at the gates with a pile of straw bales and wooden pallets. Some managers and administrators have been forced to turn back by the workers protest, fearing an imminent closure of the steelworks. Most of the inside workers hired to 8:00.

"This is once again disrupt production at the site" which is partly controlled from the "big office," said a trade unionist. The blocking is expected to continue throughout the day, he said. This is the second blocking access to the administrative buildings of the factory in less than two weeks.

February 28, fifty steelworkers were blocked for a dozen hours access to "big offices". This blockage was "unacceptable" by the management group's Atlantic-Lorraine. "ArcelorMittal strongly condemns the blocking (…) by a small group of trade unionists (who) and prohibit access to their workplace to the other employees of the company," had found direction in a statement.

Monday, the workers decided to continue meeting in their movement. The Inter announced it would conduct new blockages Tuesday, she would visit all workshops and site Wednesday that it "would rise" in Paris Thursday. A "great national day" demonstration will also be held March 22 in Florange by the CGT on the theme "The industry and the steel industry in France," said the union plans to bring in Lorraine "thousands of French and Belgian steelworkers. "

March 8, direction, accompanied by thirty guards, had taken possession of "large office", February 20 invested by metallurgists to cries of "Mittal, we want to work". Movement by engaging in late February, a CFDT Inter-CGT-FO (GSC / CFE has withdrawn since) had promised to make Florange "the nightmare of government" if the two blast furnaces of the steelworks, dormant for several months, were not given a prompt start. ArcelorMittal ensures it is only a standby temporary, made necessary by an insufficient global demand for steel.

Greece may need a third international aid plan of 50 billion euros in 2015, says the German weekly Der Spiegel published Sunday.

Troika, representing the creditors of Greece (EU, ECB and IMF), wrote in a draft of its latest report that it is not at all certain that Greece can return to credit markets in 2015. Its external financing needs over the period 2015-2020 could then reach 50 billion euros. But Der Spiegel also states that this passage was withdrawn at the request of the German government.  

The newspaper also claims that the ECB is expected to trigger the collective action clause (CAC) that will allow Athens to force private creditors reluctant to take part in the Greek debt relief. This clause, contained in the Act on the swap of bonds between the Greek state and its institutions creditors, may be triggered if at least 66% of banks participating in the operation and require creditors reluctant to join the exchange program of debt, thereby increasing the enrollment rate automatically to 100% The debt exchange transaction itself will be held March 12.

It will allow Greece to delete 107 of the 200 billion euros of its debt held by private creditors. This erasure is a prerequisite for the payment of 130 billion public aid of the second rescue plan approved Thursday in Brussels.

This has lent almost 530 billion euros to banks, bringing to more than 1,000 billion the total amount of capital lent to three years for financial institutions in order to avoid a credit crunch.

If the mutual bank BPCE warned that it would not borrow cash to the ECB, the other three major French banks have refused to say if they had chosen to take advantage of 1% currently offered by the European institution. 

Yet some analysts say they have obtained information on these establishments participating in this exercise refinancing.

And the Morgan Stanley analysts said in a research note published Thursday that BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole had participated.

BNP Paribas "has confirmed that they have participated and made billions," writes Morgan Stanley.

In any event, communication of French banks in this regard calls observers.

"I think it is a blunder from the time when other banks have clearly responded, saying they were not gone, either by saying that there had gone and how much, "Judge Christopher Nijdam, an analyst at AlphaValue. 

For him, the banks had nothing to lose by playing transparency. "They would have won in the shot image," he adds.

"COMING OUT"

For connoisseurs of French capitalism, is the fear of being stigmatized and considered financially fragile that discourages big banks to play the transparency.

Another argument cited the desire to keep a low profile and not be open to accusations of some politicians who accuse them of gorging cash while restricting access to credit say in France.

Another analyst suggests in turn a possible directive of the Prudential Control Authority (ACP).

Contacted by Reuters, nor the French Banking Federation, nor the Banque de France nor Societe Generale, BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole have desired s express on the subject. 

For an official of a foreign bank based in Paris, the silence of French banks in this case falls rather within the culture of secrecy and reluctance to transparency of their own.

To this financier, this attitude is all the more "archaic" or "grotesque" they risk no stigma.

Indeed, 800 banks went to the counter of the ECB and those who have formalized their participation in LTRO were not punished the stock market.

Britain's Lloyds Banking Group said on Wednesday he borrowed £ 11.4 billion (13.7 billion euros) to the ECB and the Italian Intesa Sanpaolo has done the same, saying he had borrowed ; 24 billion euros.

French banks would then, according to this official, nothing to fear. 

"It's like a coming-out: you most afraid to announce it but once that's done, you quickly realize that everyone cares," joked it.

Financial analysts also note that this is partly due to LTRO that much of European banks have experienced a sharp rebound in stock.

At their next meeting in April, the G20 agreed to agree on a financial firewall around 2,000 billion dollars (1.487 billion euros) to prevent European debt crisis from spreading and threatening the global recovery.

This would be the most ambitious effort since the 2008 financial crisis, when the G20 has reached 1,000 billion dollars to save the global economy. 

In an unexpected turn, Germany announced that it would decide in March on strengthening the European bailout fund, an initiative it excluded so far and that many G20 countries consider essential before any increase IMF resources.

For many partners in the euro area, it is indeed the first European leaders to implement the necessary means to control the risks of contagion from the debt crisis, for example by combining lending capacity of its two mechanisms of financial stability, the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) and the European Financial Stability Mechanism (MES ).

This would bring their firepower combined with some 750 billion euros. 

G20 countries would then be more inclined to answer the call of the IMF, who wants more than double its capacity to respond by raising $ 600 billion of additional resources.

Added together, all these measures would create a global financial firewalls of about 1,950 billion.

The question of strengthening the bailout funds in the euro area is on the agenda of the European Council of March 1 and 2.

Japan and Britain have reiterated over the weekend that they would refuse to increase their contributions to the IMF as countries in the eurozone will not self-reinforced ; their own firewall facing the debt crisis. 

"I expect that the debate on strengthening the capacity of the IMF loan is progressing as long as the problem of European debt crisis is resolved by the G20 meeting in Washington in April, "said Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi.