Considering the situation in Greece "concern" after the results of Sunday's parliamentary elections, Jean-Paul Chifflet, the Director General of the French bank, has however, that the assumption of output in the euro area was not the scenario chosen by the majority group. 

"We are in all cases prepared for all eventualities even if we think that it should not happen," said Jean-Paul Chifflet at a conference call about the future of Greece.

"We do not envisage this scenario so as the majority of risk occurrence," he added.

At the Paris Bourse, the action Credit Agricole SA, which had opened on a drop of over 3%, 2.26% gave up to 10:10, to 3.417 euros in a market still nervous because of the political stalemate in Greece and the revelation of a trading loss by the U.S. bank JPMorgan. 

Since the beginning of the year, the title, which hit Wednesday during its lowest (3.344 euros) since its IPO in late 2001, falling more than 21%, significantly underperforming the European banking index down only 0.35% since January 1.

"Given the current Greek, the group's exposure to Emporiki remains a major factor of concern," said Alex Koagne, an analyst at Natixis.

"However the performance of core business lines is strong in the quarter. Moreover, the deleveraging plan ahead properly, which is good news, "he says

. NEW CHARGES ON GREECE … The listed vehicle

….. group Credit Agricole says first quarter spending in a new charge of 940 million euros for Greece, which EUR 567 million related to its Greek subsidiary Emporiki mainly because of new provisions

. Its net profit reached 252 million of the coup euros for the first three months of the year. According to the Thomson Reuters consensus I / B / E / S, analysts on average expected a net profit of 571 million euros.

Its revenues for the period rose 2.3% while its provision for credit risk have increased more than two.

The bank, which was accused last year its first annual loss since its IPO in late 2001, warned in mid-March that its first quarter accounts would incorporate new provisions on the Gre and it related to the perimeter of the second aid plan for the Hellenic Republic. 

Hired as other European banks in a restructuring of its operations in the BFI and reduce balance sheet size, the group also states that it reached in late April, 70% of its target to reduce its liquidity needs and 91% of its objective of reducing its risk-weighted assets.

ALL OPTIONS OPEN ON CHEUVREUX

This restructuring of the CIB, which involves the removal of 1,750 positions, also resulted in the first quarter charge of 224 million euros.

Asked about the future of its subsidiary brokerage Cheuvreux, Jean-Paul Chifflet also said that all assumptions were now open. 

Cheuvreux was excluded from the scope of end-March discussions with the Chinese broker who negotiates the purchase Citics CLSA, the brokerage subsidiary of another bank green.

For the whole group Credit Agricole, the net profit was 804 million euros in the first quarter, down 47%.

For comparison, the group BPCE (People's Bank – Savings Bank), parent company of Natixis, has made a net profit of 665 million euros.

BNP Paribas and Societe Generale have in turn reported net income of respectively 2.867 million and 732 million euros.

Asked if the Commission felt that Madrid was always able to avoid stressing the currency bloc to preserve its banking sector, Olivier Bailly simply replied "yes".

He also said the Commission would be able to have an overview of the efforts of Spain to consolidate its finances once the Spanish Government has delivered a comprehensive overview of its plans, including regional governments. 

Lack of information, particularly on the provisions which reach implement local Spanish, "the Commission is not able to make any recommendation at Madrid" he added.

The partners of Greece in the euro area, which meet Monday, should agree on a solution to prevent the country from going bankrupt in a month, even if the terms of the proposed aid is not yet clearly defined. Several European leaders have shown their confidence in recent days in the ability to unlock the situation Monday during a meeting of finance ministers of Monetary Union in Brussels.

Following a telephone conversation Friday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Italian Prime Mario Monti and Prime Minister of Greece Lucas Papademos have expressed "confident that an agreement on Greece can be reached Monday the Eurogroup ". "We're getting closer to have a solid basis for a decision Monday," said the spokesman for the German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, although it had multiplied the signs of mistrust vis-à-vis of Athens recently. French President Nicolas Sarkozy has also "expressed confidence that an agreement on a new Greek program is concluded in the next few days, paving the way for a substantial reduction of the Greek debt".

Aid on the table has two interrelated components: a deletion with the private creditors of Athens 100 billion euros of Greek debt, and a new bailout of 130 billion euros from its creditors. The whole question now is what the scope of the agreement that should come out of Monday's meeting. The green light to partial erasure of private debt, already largely complete, seems on track, and can not wait any more: it is not put back on track in the next few days, it will not be concluded before the deadline of March 20, date-cleaver which Greece will have to repay 14.5 billion euros of debt, otherwise it will default on payment.

The IMF could lend 13 billion

This is the part of public support that the uncertainties are the most numerous. Good news came from Washington Sunday: Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the United States would support the idea of ​​a new International Monetary Fund loan in Athens. "This is a very strong and very difficult to reform, deserving the support of the international community and the IMF. The United States encourage the IMF to support this agreement," he wrote. The IMF would consider contributing a loan of 13 billion euros in new bailout, the Wall Street Journal. According to the website of JDD, the Fund proposes that the public debt of Greece in 2020 significantly exceed the level he wants to see it go down, reaching 129% of GDP when he wants it to be 120% up to that date.

On European aid to the President of the Eurogroup Jean-Claude Juncker, it would be "wise, judicious and advisable that finds consensus on the contours" of the program Monday. Some within the euro area are in favor of splitting the envelope, by not releasing a small portion of the aid at first, and await the outcome of Greek elections and the commitments of the new government before continuing payments or not. Paris prefers that the agreement covers all of the help, knowing that the different tranches will be disbursed in any case in light of reforms made by Athens. For the euro area has increased the requirements in exchange for his support, so that Greece can be found virtually under the tutelage of its partners.

The debt of Greece will not be reduced to 120% in 2020

Thus, a whole list of reforms contained in the "Memorandum" agreed with its creditors should be launched prior to the payment of a first tranche of aid, so they must be passed by late February or early March. And the euro area is also finalizing the creation, claimed by France and Germany, an escrow account which will be paid a portion of the funds loaned to Greece so that they are primarily used to repay public debt. This measure, which seems to have been accepted by Athens, has a number of technical difficulties and we must decide how such monitoring mechanism.

This is what's the job of senior officials of the Treasury 17, meeting in Brussels on Sunday. The other remaining issue to be arbitrated on the actual amount of public support: according to one diplomatic source, needs up to 5.5 billion more have already been identified, because the situation in Greece has deteriorated since October, when the sum of EUR 130 billion was set. And it will probably go even further, because at this stage, the measures are far from capable of reducing the public debt ratio of Greece to 120% of GDP in 2020, as originally planned.  

The European Central Bank began exchanging Greek bonds purchased below face value on the secondary market. It intends to redistribute the gains realized states of the euro area, so that they can share it with Greece, again in ways that have not yet been fixed. The idea of ​​reducing interest rates on loans already in Athens is also on the table but would yield relatively small, according to a European source. Whatever the outcome of the meeting, it will not be the end of the Greek drama as much now depends on political will from Athens to implement its part of the contract.

Since the opening of the "season" of results, 352 companies in the S & P 500 have published their accounts and only 63% beat the consensus of Wall Street. The percentage was the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2008. The proportion was around 70% on average over the last four quarters.

Despite the result in half-tone, the S & P 500 was up about 7% since the beginning of the year and it did not record that in the weeks ahead for the Except this week, closed on a 0.2% decline.

The index has lost 0.7% Friday, its biggest percentage loss since the beginning of the year, the latest news on the Greek front having ended a series of five weeks of gains.

"The demand for risky assets is strong. There is a current regular buyer on the market and the money continues to turn," said Brian Lazorishak (Chase Investment Counsel).

"It seems that the market ignores the poor results of 2011 and anticipates a promising 2012 season … For investors, this is a kind of green light to risky assets "

. Next week, 51 companies in the S & P must publish their accounts. growth rate of the S & P results for the fourth quarter of 2011 is now 8.9%, according to Thomson Reuters I / B / E / S. But it excludes Apple, rate falls to 5.8%

. Even if the stock market is driven by an upward trend, this is not why its volatility will fall. The CBOE volatility index has surged almost 12% to 20.79 after peaking at 21.98 Friday

.

"The sharp increase in the VIX, especially in the last hour, suggesting that there are serious concerns vis-à-vis the debt crisis in Europe and traders seeking opportunities to hedge their exposure to the stock market as we approach the weekend, "wrote one analyst. "If these buyers of volatility are right, Monday is likely to be terrible."

Futures on the VIX also had upward shifts very important. The February contract, which only two trading days, gained 12.5% ​​to 22.50 before closing at 21.75.

The week ahead at last count several economic indicators to follow, housing starts, price indices of wholesale and retail among others.

The New York Stock Exchange closed up 0.71% Monday, the Dow Jones 30 Industrial winning 85.15 points to 12,068.39 points.

The S & P-500, wider, took 7.89 points, or 0.63% to 1261.12 points.

The Nasdaq Composite was up on its side of 9.10 points (0.34%) to 2695.25 points.

Values, Best Buy has lost 3.11% after announcing it would pay 838 million pounds (977 million) in the UK Carphone Warehouse to buy back its share in their joint venture in mobile phones in the U.S. .

Tekelec has jumped more than 14%. The technology provider networks agreed to be acquired by a consortium of investment funds led by Siris Capital for about $ 780 million.

General Motors has announced the retirement of Nick Reilly, current head of the European activities of the group and its replacement next year by Karl-Friedrich Stracke.

Net income for the Swiss reinsurer has more than doubled in the third quarter to $ 1.35 billion (988 million) against 618 million in the comparable period in the previous year.

Swiss Re said the performance by "a moderate level of natural and unique effects positive."

Premium income rose to 5.74 billion against 5.05 billion a year earlier.

The combined ratio, a key indicator of operating profitability in the sector, however, has deteriorated to 80.8% against 76.4% last year.The combined ratio was expected at 89.7%.

The world's second largest reinsurance confirmed its medium-term objectives, for an ROE of 700 basis points above the average over five years and an average annual growth of 10% of earnings per share.

"Our financial targets in 2011-2015 reported in February 2011 is our top priority and we are fully dedicated," said CEO Stefan Lippe in a statement.

The group also expects a modest turnaround in the market but general damages, liability and accidents.

According to a survey conducted in June 2011 for the Circle Health and Europ Assistance, 29% of French say they have postponed or abandoned medical care because of financial difficulties during the past year. This is one of the highest rates in Europe: in Germany, they are only 15%, UK 6%, Spain 5%. Only Poland is less (36%). In the U.S., they are 25%.

Worse, the number of people have waived medical care in France has more than doubled in two years. In 2009 the ratio was only 11%.In three quarters of cases, these waivers or deferrals are for dental or optical care, routine care 12%, 6% of drug purchases and 5% of heavy operations.

In addition, 51% of French respondents believe that equality in access to care is not guaranteed, 53% fear a lack of public money in the future and anticipate a 50% increase in the price of medical procedures. To cover the increase in health spending, 33% of French people favor the increase in contributions and 26% are willing to pay more deductible per medical procedure.

At the Paris Bourse, the fall of the SocGen action sailed around 18.5% to 16.15 after exceeding 20% ​​temporarily. BNP Paribas

Abandoned agricultural credit and 15.68% 12.52% to 16.15.

The indices also dug their losses in the wake of a drop of around 3% of Wall Street opening.

"When we see how things have changed, there is now a lot of pressure on France.It's pretty focused, "said one London-based analyst who declined to be named, about the fall of the French bank.

"It's a little to challenge the French system:" you promise to reform.It's good but now we need concrete announcements ", he adds.

The French government announced late this morning that France would take 24 August the necessary steps to ensure that its objectives of reducing public deficits are met regardless of changing economic conditions.

CONCERNS IN ITALY

French banks are also under attack because of their high exposure to Italy, a country under pressure from European leaders to address its budgetary situation.

According to figures from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the French banks are exposed to the tune of 410 billion euros to Italy, followed by German banks with an exhibition of 165 billion.

BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole are especially vulnerable to Italy because of their local branch, respectively Banca Nazionale del Lavoro and Cariparma.

At the Milan stock exchange, securities Intesa Sanpaolo and UniCredit were reserved for the decline in the afternoon due to excessive volatility.

The market is concerned about the ability of Italian banks to refinance.In response to these rumors in the market, the ABI, the Italian Banking Association, said Wednesday morning that Italian banks had no difficulty at this time to refinance.

"Italy seems to be what worries that the market returns (the Italian debt) have fallen after the intervention of the ECB", noted earlier in the morning a trader in Paris.

EXTENSION OF AID TO GREECE?

In addition to these fears also reports that the European Union and the Institute of International Finance (IIF) would think an expansion plan for the exchange of Greek sovereign debt to include obligations maturing in 2024 instead of 2020.

To some analysts, this could result in the sudden depreciation of the most important for banks that hold the Greek sovereign debt beyond 2020.

"Banks that have not depreciated 100% of their positions could have an additional impact," said an analyst based in Paris. "This is true for BNP."

BNP Paribas said last week it held the Greek sovereign debt beyond 2020 on which it has not applied a 21% discount.

Societe Generale has however indicated that it did more than government debt after 2020.

The Nikkei, however, able to remain above the threshold of 10,000 points with expected positive results of Japanese companies.

The Nikkei lost 50.53 points to 10,047.19 and the Topix, broader, sold 7.09 points (-0.82%) to 859.11.

The ball of the quarterly results of companies backed the Japanese market, attracting groups in the solid results to investors, but exporters could suffer from the rise in the yen against the dollar.

The results were boosted by a recovery faster than expected in the supply chain and consumer demand after the earthquake that hit Japan on March 11, according to analysts.

This should help the private sector to the tune of 17 billion euro rescue of Greece.

According to the document, the plan of IFI cause "almost certainly" a selective defect of Greece.

With this exchange of debt, the euro area and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) should finance 71 billion euros in the second bailout of Greece.

The cost of bank recapitalization Greek is also estimated at 25 billion euros in total, we learn at last in the document.